The Key To Apple's Undervaluation And Amazon's Overvaluation [View article]
While it is possible that Apple could fall from grace and become less popular, I would make a sharp distinction between Apple and prior leaders in electronics.
No other company has ever had the position Apple now has in terms of integrating top quality software and hardware and creating an ecosystem of different devices that work very well together. If you have all your stuff set up oniTunes and iCloud with your iPhone, iPad, iMac, AppleTV, etc., you will need a very good reason to switch back from Apple. A TV or a portable CD player from Sony never locked you in that way.
The Key To Apple's Undervaluation And Amazon's Overvaluation [View article]
I suspect that is a big part of it - some asset managers not thinking in terms of how they are weighing stocks relative to the indices, but rather allocating more evenly among the stocks they choose.
I do by no means think it would be a good idea to split Apple up, but the fact that this outstanding and enormous company only has one ticker probably slows down the investment inflows. While the stock price performance has lagged that of the underlying business, Apple will eventually get a fair valuation in the market, and - at some point - become overvalued.
Going All-In Apple: A Counterintuitive Approach To Investing [View article]
I wasn't asking the question to heckle you. I was just interested in where you were going with it, as it is indeed an unexpected approach. For instance, if you expect AAPL to go down your point could be how dangerous it is to go all in on a stock. Not explaining it is going to leave many readers puzzled.
Going All-In Apple: A Counterintuitive Approach To Investing [View article]
I understand that you are making hypothetical trades to illustrate various concepts. But since it is a portfolio whose value you track, why not use examples that match your market opinions -- in this instance going long AMZN rather than AAPL?
The 2 Most Important Rules Of Short Selling [View article]
Excellent article. One thing I might add, which I have learned from experience, is that it pays to have a firm stop-loss on short positions. In the case of straightforward short positions in the stock, that would take the form of closing out the position at a predetermined price.
What I now prefer to do is to use options spreads - for instance to sell a call option at a strike price around the level I think it will drop to and buy a call option at a strike price determined by how large a loss I'm willing to take in case I am wrong. Considering seasonal patterns in the stock market, now might be a good time for some bearish options spreads that expire in the fall.
How Long Will De-Leveraging Last In The U.S. And What Are The Implications [View article]
I agree with your analysis. A study of secular bull and bear markets would also lead to a similar conclusion (it might conclude that a bottom was likely around 2016, but there is no way to time this with such accuracy).
Slightly off topic: For those interested in historical cycles (not directly financial market oriented), I would recommend the book "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe. It is an illuminating analysis of US history, which makes a strong case for generational cycles having a big influence. I consider it quite relevant for the current environment of deleveraging and crisis management.
You can find information about it in 10-Qs and 10Ks on the company's web site. Net revenue from U.S. stores surpassed that of Canadian stores this year.
I do agree with you that LULU may not see $60 per share again anytime soon. Valuations of high-flying stocks in general are coming back down to earth.
J.A. How familiar are you with the company? Lulu is growing very rapidly in the US and has become a major high-end athletic brand, at least for women, with enthusiastic and loyal customers. LULU also has much larger earnings than UA.
I am not trying to promote the stock -- I have been short due to an inflated valuation, but fair is fair.
Advice for Greece? By a nice margin, the best performing Western European stock exchange year-to-date is Iceland, +8.7% [View news story]
It should be kept in mind that the Icelandic stock market was almost entirely wiped out in 2008 and there is only a handful of companies that currently make up the Icelandic stock index.
Adaptive Asset Allocation: A True Revolution In Portfolio Management [View article]
The Key To Apple's Undervaluation And Amazon's Overvaluation [View article]
No other company has ever had the position Apple now has in terms of integrating top quality software and hardware and creating an ecosystem of different devices that work very well together. If you have all your stuff set up oniTunes and iCloud with your iPhone, iPad, iMac, AppleTV, etc., you will need a very good reason to switch back from Apple. A TV or a portable CD player from Sony never locked you in that way.
The Key To Apple's Undervaluation And Amazon's Overvaluation [View article]
I do by no means think it would be a good idea to split Apple up, but the fact that this outstanding and enormous company only has one ticker probably slows down the investment inflows. While the stock price performance has lagged that of the underlying business, Apple will eventually get a fair valuation in the market, and - at some point - become overvalued.
Going All-In Apple: A Counterintuitive Approach To Investing [View article]
Going All-In Apple: A Counterintuitive Approach To Investing [View article]
The 2 Most Important Rules Of Short Selling [View article]
What I now prefer to do is to use options spreads - for instance to sell a call option at a strike price around the level I think it will drop to and buy a call option at a strike price determined by how large a loss I'm willing to take in case I am wrong. Considering seasonal patterns in the stock market, now might be a good time for some bearish options spreads that expire in the fall.
Peak Credit [View article]
How Long Will De-Leveraging Last In The U.S. And What Are The Implications [View article]
Slightly off topic: For those interested in historical cycles (not directly financial market oriented), I would recommend the book "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe. It is an illuminating analysis of US history, which makes a strong case for generational cycles having a big influence. I consider it quite relevant for the current environment of deleveraging and crisis management.
Lululemon Looks Fairly Valued [View article]
I do agree with you that LULU may not see $60 per share again anytime soon. Valuations of high-flying stocks in general are coming back down to earth.
Lululemon Looks Fairly Valued [View article]
I am not trying to promote the stock -- I have been short due to an inflated valuation, but fair is fair.
Advice for Greece? By a nice margin, the best performing Western European stock exchange year-to-date is Iceland, +8.7% [View news story]
Why Hewlett-Packard Is Undervalued [View article]
Selling the Winners [View article]
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Bullish Spreads on Insurance Companies [View article]
Bullish Spreads on Insurance Companies [View article]